Brown Forman Company Analysis Essay Example For Students

Brown Forman Company Analysis Essay Straight up or mixed, whiskey or wine Brown-Formans got a drink for you. The Louisville, Kentucky based company is the best known for its world famous whiskeys, Jack Daniels and Southern Comfort. Its wine and spirits segment manufactures, bottles, imports, exports and markets a wide variety of other alcoholic beverages and wines (Bel Arbors and Bolla). But Brown-Forman is also part of a consumer durables segment which sells fine china (Dansk and Lenox), sterling silver jewellery and personal leather accessories (Hartmann). Flat profits in the distilling industry spurred Brown-Forman to develop an international presence by diversifying into non-alcoholic areas, adding more than 50 new markets during the mid 1990s. For the six months ended 31/10/98, sales rose 4% to $1.02 billion. Net income rose 9% to $104 million. Results reflect higher sales volume sales for Lenox collections and improved manufacturing efficiencies. HistoryIn 1870, George Garvin Brown saw a need form a quality whiskey that met medicinal standards. With $5,500 of saved and borrowed money he began J.T.S Brown and Bro. Their flagship brand Old Forrester Kentucky Bourbon whiskey was sold in sealed glass bottles to assure its quality. Browns friend George Forman joined the company and hence led to the name being changed to Brown-Forman. The incorporation of Brown-Forman occurred in 1901 just after Forman died. In 1904, Owsley Brown, George Garvin Browns son took a very important decision, to come into the business, thus beginning a tradition of family apprenticeship that continues to this day. In 1933, prohibition, which hindered the initial progress of the company, died and Brown-Forman was able to establish whiskey as an alcohol beverage. Also in that year, Owsley Brown and several other prominent figures of the time, set up DISCUS (Distilled Spirits Council of the US). This trade organization has been instrumental in the education of abuse of alcohol. It is still very prominent today. This year also saw Brown-Formans first public stock issue, which provided a capital base that allowed the company to re-enter the American market with strength after the lean years of prohibition and depression. 1956 was another important year in the history of Brown-Forman as they made one of their most famous acquisitions. They purchased Jack Daniels distillery in Lynchburg, Tennessee. This has since become one of the most popular whiskeys in the world, and led to the company producing a net sales figure of more than $100m for the first time in 1960. Since 1960, Brown-Forman has been littered with new acquisitions. These include companies such as Korbel California champagnes in 1965 to Moray Speyside Malt Whiskey in 1997. Other major acquisitions during this time include, The Grand Old Drink Of The South, Southern Comfort in 1979 and Lenox Inc. in 1983. In recent news Brown-Formans Korbel champagne was named the Official Champagne of the millennium in an agreement reached with the Times Square Business Improvement District. As a result Korbel will be a sponsor of the Time Square Millennium Celebrations. This will hopefully push up sales in this area along with the expected millennium rush. Estimated Profit and LossProfit and Loss account for Brown-Forman for last Quarter ending 30/04/99Figures in $000s30/04/9930/04/9830/04/97Turnover498,000461,000433,000Cost Of Goods Sold241,100229,000215,000Gross Profit246,900232,000218,000Expenses170,200160,500150,500Earnings Before Interest and Tax76,70071,50067,500Interest Expense1,8002,5003,500Income Before taxes74,40069,80064,000Taxes on Income26,00025,00024,000Net Income48,40044,00040,000Earnings Per Share0.680.630.58Profit And Loss Account Analysis:In this section we will attempt to justify the above profit and loss account figures on a short summary basis. Full details and our reasoning behind our beliefs will be thoroughly covered in the next section. 1) Turnover: We have predicted a figure of 8% growth in Brown Formans turnover for the comingQuarter. This is optimistic, but we believe that there are many positive factors favoring the corporation in this area, including the effect of the currently strong dollar will have on earnings. The continued growth of the Jack Daniels Southern Comfort brands, along with the remarkable growth in turnover of Brown Formans wines are what will continue to drive turnover. Steady growth will continue in the Lenox collection and the Dansk tableware range. A possible negative effect is the current slowdown in domestic expenditure in the US, but we do not expect that this will have a material effect on the turnover growth for this quarter. One thing that could offset turnover growth for the next quarter is the continued decline of the Canadian Mist, Jack Daniels frozen cocktail, and Old Times brands. This poor performance may slow down or shadow an otherwise consistent turnover growth rate. 2) Cost of Goods Sold: We expect that growth in this figure will remain as it has for the previous two years at approximately 5.2%. To justify this we must look at the cost structure of the company, including the depreciation and amortization of the fixed and tangible assets. The Assets are depreciated over a 40 year period, using the straight-line method, leading us to believe that the depreciation charges will not vary much over the next quarter. Advertising costs, which are prevalent in the Hartmann Luggage and Lenox China, 14% increases in 1998 over the 1997 figure, are charged to expense as incurred ( charged to expense immediately after service has been availed of ) or else they are amortized over a period of 1 year or less. This means that there will be little variance with regard to advertising over the next quarter. The effects on the cost of goods sold by depreciation and advertising are relatively consistent, however, with an uncertain year ahead of the dollar, the effects of foreign currency transactions are uncertain. With regard to the next quarter, the effect of foreign currency transactions will have no bearing on the cost of goods sold. 3) Earnings before interest and tax: Expected annual increase in operating earnings over the next full business cycle (3-5 years) is expected to be 9.8%. Again, we feel that this is somewhat optimistic, as it was only 5.9% in the period 1997-1998, and even less ( 4.3% ) in the year before that. 4) Interest Expense: The interest expense is going to keep on falling through the next quarter and the next period. Since 1989, the interest expense has fallen from $34m to a proposed $11m in 1999. With regard to the next quarter, we have projected a weighted fall in the interest expense to just under $2m. The reason for these falls are simply the result of changes in the corporations debt financing structures. Since 1994, with a total of $299m in long-term debt, the overall debt figure has been reduced to $50m in 1998. With debt reductions of this magnitude, it is no surprise why the interest expense continues to fall. 5) Taxes: Because of the established and mature nature of Brown-Formans business we do not expect any substantial changes in the taxation figure, with that we expect it to remain at 36.5%. 6) Net income: In May 1998 BFB adopted Accounting Standard (SFAS) No 130, reporting comprehensive income. The adoption of this did not have a material impact on the net income in the previous 3 quarters so we do not expect it to effect the last quarter of the fiscal year. Comprehensive income is defined as the change in equity from transactions and other events from non-owner sources. In order to analyse Net income, it is very important to consider operating income. In 1998 operating income grew 14% due to strong performances by the Lenox collections and the Jack Daniels brand package, as a result the Net Income rose 23% on the previous year. The effective tax rate in the Lenox collections segment fell from 47.5% to 45%, which probably wont be the case again this year, there fore the growth rates may be not as impressive in the next year, especially in the next quarter. Economic BackgroundBrown-Forman produces mainly in consumer non-cyclical areas. While this would indicate an aversi on to economic changes it does not mean that Brown-Forman is exempt from such. Our Business is subject to changes in general economic conditions, changes in consumer preferences, the degree of acceptance of new products and uncertainties of litigation(Extract from: BF Corp SEC form 10 quarterly report December 1998)As we can see from the above chart Brown-Formans beta is quite low at .47. This would indicate that the company is subject to a good deal less risk than the market that they trade in, and indeed than their main competitor Diageo. This information is important to consider when we are evaluating economic changes because it would appear to indicate that Brown-Forman are less exposed to these changesEmerging Market Difficulties a danger to the US economyThe financial turbulence and economic setbacks which emerging markets have experienced since mid 1997 continue to cast a shadow over the world economy. These economies experiencing major financial and economic difficulties acc ount for 1/3 of world output. Although Brown-Forman are not a big exporterto emerging market areas the potential for a large effect on the US market still remain. In the US worrying signs, which could have a bearing on the markets and Brown-Formans growth, include:A fall in domestic demand in emerging markets leading to a negative impact on export trade. US export growth is expected to fall much more than Europe. Plato's theory EssayThe growth of the Consumer Durables sector over the last few years, as we have seen, has been good, and we see nothing that should affect its further expansion. The development of the Lenox collections high margin catalogue, which includes china used in the White House, will continue to help keep this products market share and hopefully continue to increase its popularity. Similarly, the Dansk range of tableware is experiencing, and will continue to experience, steady growth over the next quarter. It used to have a wholesale operation a couple of years ago, and has recently re-entered this market. This successfulRe-entrance into this market has bolstered sales by a consistent 2% and will continue to do so into the next quarter of 1999. Finally, the continued double-digit growth of the Hartmann luggage accessories product range, which has a major part to play in the overall success of the consumer durables sector, willcontinue due to recent aggressive marketing e fforts and favorable consumer reactions to product line innovations. Factors affecting Industry Growth TrendsIn attempting to determine future growth for sales, profit etc., there are many factors one could examine. However as brevity is of importance we have decided to use the following;1.) Social Attitudes2.) Legislation3.) Distribution4.) Competition: 1) Social AttitudesCurrently the business environment for distillers and vintners is strongly influenced by societal attitudes towards drinking and government policies reflect those attitudes. Government Policy objectives are aimed at reducing alcoholism and curbing the amount of under age alcohol consumption. A company such as Brown-Forman seeks to compete strongly in the marketplace and to protect the right of adult consumers to purchase these products. Within the U.S. and other international markets Brown-Forman works with other distillers and vintners to gain a more favourable political and social environment for the sale of its products. Brown-Forman is a member of the Distilled Vintners Council and the Wine Institute. Both of these organisations attempt to obtain fair treatment for the company and its consumers. Moreover Brown-Forman seeks to secure beneficial regulatory treatment in foreign markets, including open access to foreign markets for U.S. made spirits and wines. 2.) LegislationThe alcoholic beverage industry is highly sensitive to increases in tax rates. In the U.S., Brown-Formans largest market, there is no imminent legislation to increase excise taxes, although a future increase cannot be ruled out!Similarly, while there has been discussion (and legislation introduced) to ban advertising of spirits in the U.S. nothing has come of it. However, most TV networks currently decline to accept advertisements for spirits. Outside the U.S., the alcoholic beverage market is also affected by tax rates and advertising restrictions, but the impact of those policies in any one market is not significant to the companys overall business and advertising. 3).DistributionAt present Brown-Forman do not own any major distribution companies. Therefore it relies on its competitors to distribute its products in different markets. For instance, United Distillers and Vintners distribute Jack Daniels and Southern Comfort in the U.K., while Bacardb Wedistributes Brown-Formans spirits products in most of continental Europe. However, the current European economy is in a state of flux, with the recent creation of the European Union and the consequent elimination of trading barriers along with the adoption of the Single European Currency, which will be put in motion in the near future. These changes will greatly affect Brown-Formans business in Europe and will revolutionise distribution of spirits and wine in Europe, which is presently constructed on a country by country basis, by encouraging cross-border sales. B-F is not an owner of a European distribution company; therefore ifreform is not undertaken in the near future, their retail sales prices will come under pressure due to increased cross-border competition. 4.) CompetitionThe recent merger of Grand Metropolitan and Guinness (07/11/97) created United Distillers and Vintners, (a sub-component of Diageo) by far the largest global spirits company. This merger created uncertainty within the industry and added to the already fierce competition among the different major spirit producers (Brown-Forman, Seagram and Allied Domecq). However Brown-Formans CEO, Owsley Brown, felt that this uncertainty was not present at Brown-Forman, as he clearly stated,We believe our company will not only preserve its enviable position within the industry but will grow to become an even greater factor in the worlds marketplace. We are better positioned than ever to accomplish our objectives..our financial and operating capacity is growing and our people are among the most motivated in the industry. As the above chart shows, Brown-Formans 5 year EPS growth rate is in a much better position than that of its nearest competitor Diageo. While this may be because of restructuring in Diageo following the merger, it none the less augurs well for a stable growth company of the strength of Brown-Forman. In conclusion, the outlook for Brown-Forman remains positive and should continue along previous years growth levels. The factors mentioned above such as Social Attitudes and Legislation should remain unchanged, thus having no significant adverse affect on short-term future growth rates. While the creation of UDV has undoubtedly heightened the fierce competition already in place, we feel that an established and mature company like Brown-Forman who is continuously re-investing in its workforce and products should maintain its foothold within the industry. Finally, it must be stated that the companys distribution channels across Europe need reform, in the long run, when the full ramifications of European Integration will be felt.Summary:So, what has been covered throughout this project ?The overall object of the assignment was to analyse the financial and economic performance of the Brown-Forman Corporation over the last 3 or 4 years, and come up with a set of figures that best describe how we thought the company was going to perform in the upcoming period. In the case of the Brown-Forman Corporation, the next quarterly report. What are our results, and what to they show us ?Firstly, we saw how mature the company was, and how its segments are non-cyclical. Secondly, we saw that through different attitudes towards the different segments, diverse results were obtained. No more so than with regard to the continual pressure put on the Jack Daniels brand package to perform, even in the established markets. Thirdly, it is very noticeable that the projected growth rates, made by the company, are very much exaggerated. With all the evidence given throughout the paper, it is hard to determine where exactly the growth is going to come from. Included in the project is a very interesting piece on the Guinness and Grand Metropolitan merger. The reason we mentioning it now is the fact that a recent article in the Economist newspaper of 5th of March describes rumors of a possible merger between Allied Domecq and Seagram, two of the other biggest players in the alcoholic beverage market. If this were to take place, where or what would Brown-Forman go then ?BIBLIOGRAPHY:Central Bank of Ireland, Winter Bulletin 1998Brown Forman, Annual financial statements for the past five years ending 5/98Brown Forman, Quarterly report 1998-1999, SEC 10Q ReportERSI Quarterly communicae, November 1998Financial Times, Friday January 29th 1999Harvard Business Review, January February 1999; Managing in the Euro-zone , pp. 47Irish Times, Monday January 18th 1999The Brown Forman Corporation Web Site at http://www.Brown-Forman Corporation.com LALLY, DERMOT